HAGUE: THE USUAL SUSPECTS, THE USUAL BENEFICIARIES

If after looking at the Ocampo list I could pick a surprise, it would only be Arap Sang. And even then, it would only be because I was neither in the Rift Valley nor had I ever read any of the human rights reports on the PEV. He was the only one a little surprised by his inclusion in the list such that he had to wait till the next day to issue a statement.
That all is just a by the way for me. In light of the naming, a different ball game has emerged all together. the score in this one right now is not whether these suspects will be local heroes but who takes up their part when they are gone. The people in the driving seat of this 'take-over' project with the help of the blind suspects are Isaac Ruto, Jeremiah Kioni, Naivasha's Mututho, Joshua Kutuny and their homies. their game plan is based entirely on two of Ocampo's actions: one is to act politically by naming an equal number of suspects from each side of the coalition and the other is that Ocampo will be seeking summons to the Hague rather than arrest warrants.
Asking for summons rather than warrants would ensure that the suspect are still here in 2012. even if they cannot vie, they will be the heroes and their endorsements will be the heavyweight votes. Nobody (except them) wants that. Thus 'project delete them from the picture' emerged.
Ocampo realised that naming an equal number of suspects from each party would grant him political will and overcome the hitches he has come across in other polarised countries. Naming so many members from one community and too few from another may have granted Kenya a resurrection of the violence too, the main suspect creating instability to protect their own. That would have been politically correct by public opinion. The political advocates of the suspects realise that, but they also know they can score a few points. This point has been made numerously, including by the prime minister in parliament. It was used to persuade members to support the motion urging the government to abandon the ICC.
That motion has been called silly, inane and a piece of shit paper, as far as helping the suspects legally goes. I agree, but then its drafters had never intended it to help the suspects. Everything these people do is meant to be the proverbial stone that hits two birds at a go.
The day after the naming, I was lucky enough to come across the demonstrators against Uhuru's inclusion in the list. the demonstration was led by among others Waititu and Simon Mbugua. Unlike other political events, the MPs did quite a poor job of paying off the demonstrating hooligans to a point where they were caught on camera. The message to the ICC is not hard to decipher. Mututho was on the record the next day asking people to support Uhuru, even financially. Everywhere the political advocates of the suspects open their mouths, applause welcomes their speeches. They have overcome the first hurdle; impressing the suspects enough to become their political bosom buddies. Now whenever you see a suspect, there is one of these MPs in the vicinity ready to fire at Ocampo.
They are slowly mounting the second barrier; gaining an audience receptive enough and supportive of their course. To make it easier, they are holding their rallies in the areas where it is okay to say, "Ni nyinyi mnatafutwa". To their benefit, that area is large enough to win an election which makes the project worthwhile. In the end, they are the best friends the suspects could have and lonely voices of 'stop persecuting the heroes' campaign.
Having mounted such strong opposition to the ICC process; legally, in demonstration and political statements and being such close friends of the suspects, the ICC will have little choice but to issue arrest warrants against the suspects. Fiefdoms must be inherited, this will be done by whoever makes the arrests the greatest agenda at that time and whoever stands with the suspects to the bitter end. So you think Isaac Ruto has a peacock's brain, but when you see him you are looking at the face of the next King of the Rift Valley. And he has learnt it from William Ruto who did it to Moi. It is a game played well for some time. Just like Kibaki and Raila and a tranche of their cabinet.
It is the short and simple story of kingpins and their cronies.
In a nutshell, all the noise sends one message to the ICC, these suspects will not cooperate if they are free. When the ICC acts, the noisemakers will takeover; being the emergent heroes. The good news is, till they take over, they will use little of their money.